India Poised to be USD 5-trillion Economy by 2026-27: CEA

20 June 2022: As per recent news reports, while addressing an event organised by UNDP India, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran was quoted as saying that India is relatively better placed than other emerging economies. India would become a USD 5 trillion economy by 2026-27 and USD 10 trillion by 2033-34.

The reports mentioned him conveying that on the face of it, looks optimistic, even ambitious, but if we get to USD 5 trillion by 2026-27. We are now USD 3.3 trillion, it is not such a difficult target to reach. Then if you simply assume 10 per cent nominal GDP growth in dollar terms, then you get to USD 10 trillion by 2033-34 and another doubling with the same rate, he said.

He provided context that in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi envisioned making India a USD 5 trillion economy and global powerhouse by 2024-25.

The CEA said there is a need for climate tagging of the budget. GDP is the worst measure of economic activities but for all others. Because everything else you take, comes with their own limitations and serious subjectivity, he emphasised.

The World Bank has cut India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.5 per cent as rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions taper recovery. India’s economy grew 8.7 per cent in the last fiscal (2021-22) against a 6.6 per cent contraction in the previous year.

In its third monetary policy of 2022-23, the Reserve Bank retained its GDP growth forecast at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal, but cautioned against negative spillovers of geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in the global economy.