Global Business Barometer improves but Executives still see the Survival Phase

30 June 2020: The 2nd Edition Global Business Barometer, conducted by The Economist Intelligence Unit and supported by SAS, shows that as of late May executives believe the people are still in the survival phase, although many have made adaptations to their operations, some of which may become permanent.

Executives’ sentiment about the three-month outlook for the global economy rose but remains pessimistic at -27.7 (out of a range of -50 to +50). The biggest single swing in the barometer from April to May came in China, where the 3-month outlook for the economy fell by 21.9 points. At the time of the first GBB in April, China looked to be over the worst of COVID-19 (or at least the worst of the first wave). That has clearly since changed, with the mood souring considerably on widespread downgrades to China forecasts and the Chinese government abandoning its annual GDP target for the first time in decades.

There are three broad stages to recovery from the kind of crisis we are experiencing now: survival, adaptation and recovery.