GDP Growth Estimated at 6.3% for 2023-24: FICCI Survey

26 October 2023: Latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts forth an annual median GDP growth forecast for the year 2023-24 at 6.3 percent.

Growth forecast for agriculture and allied activities has been put at 2.7 per cent for 2023-24. This marks a moderation vis-à-vis growth of about 4.0 per cent reported in the year 2022-23. The El Nino effect has had an impact on the spatial distribution of rainfall this monsoon season. Industry and services sector, on the other hand, are anticipated to grow by 5.6 per cent and 7.3 per cent respectively in the current fiscal year.

FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey was conducted in the month of September 2023 and drew responses from leading economists representing industry, banking and financial services sector.

Persisting headwinds on account of geopolitical stress, slowing growth in China, lagged impact of monetary tightening and below normal monsoons pose as downside risks to growth. According to the survey results, median GDP growth is estimated to slowdown to 6.1 per cent and 6.0 per cent in Q2 2023-24 and Q3 2023-24 respectively – after posting a four-quarter high growth of 7.8 per cent in Q1 2023-24.

Further, the median forecast for CPI based inflation has been put at 5.5 per cent for 2023-24, with a minimum and maximum range of 5.3 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively.

On investments, participants mentioned the government’s thrust on capital expenditure has led to a crowding in of private investments and provided support to growth momentum. However, a full-fledged momentum in investments will take some more time to build in. It was felt that going forward any further recovery in private investments will be led by a pick-up in consumption activity – both domestic and external.